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二季度中国乳业市场全解析!季报、产品趋势、典型事件……

2019-07-24 点击:1000

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2019年第二季度,国内乳品行业整体向好,大中型企业在品牌建设,产品创新及市场推广等层面依然处于领先;奶业振兴计划逐步落地实施,塑造国产乳品品牌,已经成为国家战略和市场竞争的双重要求,中国乳业全面进入品牌竞争时代。

奶价走势及进口情况:生鲜乳收购价季节性下跌,鲜奶零售价格平稳上涨,乳品进口再创新高

根据农业农村部公布的4 - 5月份《农产品供需形势分析月报(鲜活农产品)》显示,生鲜乳价格自3月份以来,连续三个月下跌。据农业农村部监测,5月份,生鲜乳收购价格每公斤3.53元,环比跌0.6%,同比涨3.2%。随着夏季来临,奶牛养殖热应激影响逐渐显现,对生鲜乳产量将产生一定冲击,一些地区产量有所减少,预计6月份奶价止跌企稳。/p>

与此同时,从农业农村部4。5月全国监测城市鲜奶平均零售价来看,二季度鲜奶零售价较为平稳。5月份,全国监测城市鲜奶平均零售价格每斤为5.35元,环比持平,同比涨0.9%。随着消费者对新鲜牛奶需求的不断扩大,预计全年鲜奶零售价将保持稳步增长的态势。

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农业农村部《农产品供需形势分析月报(鲜活农产品)》

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农业农村部《农产品供需形势分析月报(鲜活农产品)》

1-4月,乳品进口再创新高。据海关数据统计,1-4月份我国进口乳品继续保持量价齐增,乳制品进口量位108.19万吨,同比增长18.6%;进口额为38.74亿美元,同比增长21.1%。

XXThe import volume of raw milk powder was 462,200 tons, up 32.7% year-on-year. The sharp increase in milk powder reflects the fact that the market size of the dairy industry continues to increase in the case of relatively stable domestic dairy production.

The import volume of infant formula milk powder was 107,000 tons, up 29.1% year-on-year, and the import value was 16.51%, up 35.6% year-on-year. Imported milk powder is grabbing the market space left by the implementation of the baby powder registration system.

Relatively speaking, the growth rate of imported cheese slowed down. Imports in January-April were 37,900 tons, up 7.4% year-on-year, and imports were US$170 million, down 0.1% year-on-year. Obviously, the domestic cheese market is highly competitive. One is the rise of domestic brands. The other is that the consumer education work in the domestic cheese market still has a long way to go. Without the consumer's perception and consumption, the market scale will not enlarge.

Dairy Imports from January to April 2019

Unit: 10,000 tons, 100 million US dollars

Import volume

Year-on-year

Import amount

Year-on-year

Dairy products

108.19

18.6%

38.74

21.2%

Dry dairy products

80.0

14.4%

35.3

21.0%

Big bag of milk powder

46.22

32.7%

13.15

24.6%

Infant with powder

10.70

29.1%

xx16.51

35.6%

乳清

14.95

-18.1%

1.99

1.9%

3.25

-22.6%

1.72

-34.2%

干酪

3.79

7.4%

1.70

-0.1%

炼乳

1.08

35.4%

0.18

22.7%

液态奶

28.19

32.1%

3.49

24.1%

纯牛奶

27.08

33.5%

3.29

26.6%

酸奶

1.11

5.5%

0.20

-6.8%

中国海关

两个

上市乳品企业季报报告概述:市场增长是主题,大企业增长率继续领先,特色企业差异明显

在第二季度,上市乳品公司在季度报告中逐渐披露。总体而言,大多数上市乳品企业的业绩同比增长,市场增长成为主题,但业绩差异明显:大企业和特色企业的增长率领先。

(1) High-end adjustment promotes the growth of Yili's profits. In the first quarter, Yili achieved operating income of RMB 23.077 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.89%. Among them, liquid milk products, milk powder and dairy products, and cold drink products achieved revenues of 18.959 billion yuan, 2.552 billion yuan and 1.5 billion yuan respectively. The net profit was 2.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.36%. The increase in profit was mainly due to the adjustment of product structure, and the high-end products led to the increase in overall gross profit margin. It can be seen that after the leading enterprises such as Yili are in an absolute leading position in the market, the focus of the company has turned to profit, and the product structure has gradually adjusted to high-end.

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(2) The transformation of youthfulness promotes the strong growth of the new hope dairy industry. Another national company, New Hope, has achieved strong growth with its unwavering youthful transformation and fresh strategy. In the first quarter, New Hope Dairy's revenue was 1.22 billion, up 13.5% year-on-year. The growth rate is ahead of most regional dairy industries, and the clear brand strategy has gradually improved its performance.

(3) Tianrun continued to grow rapidly, and Cody's performance slowed down. As a representative of the featured enterprises in recent years, Tianrun Dairy has a conservative target in 2019 and is intended to consolidate the market base. However, it still maintains a growth rate of over 15% in the first quarter, and is expected to exceed the target in the whole year. Cody is small. The popularity of white milk has gradually slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of 6.22% in the first quarter, which is close to the growth rate of most regional dairy industries.

(4) Focusing on cheese brings leaps and bounds to Miaolan. Since the beginning of the year, Guangze Dairy has changed its name to Mi Kelan, the company's strategy has become clearer, focusing on cheese. In 2019, with the continued growth of the cheese industry and the promotion of super-single items such as children's cheese sticks, in the first quarter, the company increased by 57.52% year-on-year and achieved leapfrog growth.

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Partially listed dairy companies report their results in a quarter

xx部分上市的乳品公司

营业收入(亿元)

去年同期

净利润(亿元)

去年同期

伊利股份

230.77

17.89%

22.76

8.36%

光明乳业

54.52

5.51%

1.41

4.03%

New Hope Dairy

12.2

13.50%

0.23

3.64%

三元股份

19.4

10.89%

0.53

48.60%

天润乳业

3.48

15.97%

0.31

10.19%

Cody Dairy

2.90

6.22%

0.30

28.13%

黄石集团

4.67

4.04%

0.11

10.87

Yantang Dairy

2.81

8.82%

0.11

15.09%

庄园牧场

1.93

17.32%

0.18

4.24%

麦尔

1.39

-1.35%

0.03

-62.06

Knight Dairy

1.31

19.12%

0.11

60.23%

妙可蓝多

2.98

57.52%

0.004

101.9%

上市公司公告/瑞农乳业研究部整理

上半年产品趋势分析

上半年,中国乳制品市场,巴氏杀菌乳,代餐酸奶,健康理念,口味创新,大包装升级等已成为热门产品趋势。

巴氏杀菌牛奶是爆发前夕的。

市场预测,从2018年到2020年,国内市场低温鲜奶产品的复合年增长率预计将达到18.5%,远远超过整个液态奶市场的增长率。根据AC尼尔森的数据,长期深度生长的鲜奶市场在国内鲜奶市场的市场份额为48.5%。全国巨头蒙牛和伊利都纷纷推出大规模布局。

为了迎接即将到来的Burs牛奶大战,在第二季度,Bright和蒙牛推出了Pap的新产品。 4月23日,新推出的“新鲜新鲜”新产品新光推出两款新产品,即新鲜牛奶和桉树鲜奶减脂50%,进一步丰富了产品线。它体现了坚持新鲜,深耕和保鲜的品牌价值,始终引领着新鲜。蒙牛于5月推出了每日新鲜的0脂肪鲜牛奶。

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中国鲜奶市场的潜力也吸引了外国投资。 4月15日,国际乳业巨头恒天然的安佳品牌宣布在中国推出其首个自有品牌奶制品。尽管恒天然在一年前与Box Horse Fresh和家乐福合作生产鲜奶,但恒天然正式以自有品牌为新鲜牛奶市场奠定了基础。

作为区域乳制品行业的传统优势,Pap's Milk受到了极大的挑战。为了巩固其优势,各地区的乳制品行业都在Pap推出了高端新产品。例如,新希望金24小时,维岗来鲜奶,受益于优质鲜牛奶。

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随着各类企业的努力,巴氏乳的升级之战已经开始,该类别即将爆发。可以预见的是,Pap乳的技术障碍将在未来被打破,产品概念也将趋于同质化。只有不断塑造品牌,赢得消费者的信任,公司才能赢得Pap的战斗。

2,代餐酸奶已成为新的热点

代餐的概念起源于欧洲和美国,全球和中国代餐市场都呈现出蓬勃发展的景象。在2018年代,膳食产品的数量迅速增加。目前,中国代餐市场规模已达到200亿元,未来代餐市场将达到1000亿元。代餐酸奶的价值主要包括几个方面,一是补充膳食纤维;另一种是满足饥饿;第三是帮助减肥。

目前,代餐酸奶的普及已引起众多企业的关注,蒙牛,光明,圣牧赛苏,兰格阁等品牌已经布局。例如,蒙牛半膳生活,核心价值是减肥塑形;真正的粮食定位代餐小吃。明亮的Amy Yogurt酸奶含有8g糙米粉,装在一个小包装中,可以在酸奶中搅拌混合,给消费者带来“无负担”的丰满感。

替代膳食酸奶反映了消费升级背景下消费者自身的进一步升级。如今,消费者对健康的关注和理解变得越来越深刻。消费者对健康食品的需求已从“我想吃”变为“我会吃”。越来越多的消费者开始学习自我健康管理。代餐酸奶显然是健康管理过程中的重要工具。

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许多公司的进入也使得代餐酸奶的竞争更加激烈。代餐乳制品是一大类,可进一步细分为体重管理,零食代餐和其他子类别。为了抓住这一类别的机会,乳制品企业必须准确掌握目标人群和消费情景,并在消费现场开发适合他们的产品。

3,健康理念是酸奶创新的永恒主题

乳制品本身就是一种健康食品,乳制品市场的增长与消费者对健康的持续关注密不可分。正因为如此,围绕健康概念的创新产品已经出现,例如零添加,有机和其他乳制品概念多年。在今年上半年,我们观察了各种乳制品公司的创新产品。虽然产品的概念很多,但与健康有关的概念仍占很大比例。大健康的概念仍然是乳制品创新不可或缺的重要方向。

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总结第二季度企业的新产品,我们可以看到围绕健康概念创新的五大类子产品:一个是代餐酸奶,每个企业的竞争进入表明这是目前的热点;第二是零添加酸奶。今年上半年,天佑推出了一种零添加酸奶,仅以原料奶,糖和乳酸菌为原料。它表明零添加的概念仍然没有过时。第三是减糖酸奶。早在去年,薇薇的全部半糖成为减糖酸奶的代表性产品,第二季度,乐春推出了无糖酸奶,表明减糖趋势仍然相同;第四个是减脂酸奶,明亮的莫斯利第二季推出了减脂酸奶,这种酸奶减去50%的脂肪和25%的蔗糖,每100克仅66Kcal;五种运动健身产品,如蒙牛特伦苏M-PLUS高蛋白乳,彩石“YO KEEP”酸奶,炫彩yoGreak酸奶等,均为高蛋白低热量乳制品,专为运动健身人士设计。

4.酸奶风味创新正在升级,以提升体验

与10年前相比,今天的酸奶市场发生了翻天覆地的变化。产品的味道是无穷无尽的,消费者可以想到几乎添加到酸奶中的水果,谷物和其他口味。正因为如此,酸奶的味道已经成为公司越来越难的问题。随着消费者变得越来越重要,酸奶风味的创新必须进一步提升消费者体验,特别是在三个方向:

一个是升级以提升品味。原来的水果酸奶现在升级为添加水果;原来的燕麦酸奶现在升级为整粒燕麦片,更耐嚼。这样做的目的是为消费者提供更好的口味体验,同时看到所吃的水果或谷物也突出了产品添加的真实性。

第二是升级到复杂的味道。混合和混合各种口味正成为口味创新的新方向。复合香精的最大优点是它可以让消费者同时吃各种口味,价值感更强;同时,不同的口味通常会产生更好的味觉反应,并且营养更全面。

第三是记忆的味道。饮用后可以记住一种味道,所以这种味道已经过了一半。 5月30日,新疆瑞源乳业有限公司推出薄荷酸奶“薄荷”,产品吸引力“清理和帮助消化”,“薄荷”作为子品牌,旨在捕捉代表薄荷酸奶类。牌。

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5.基本袋装酸奶升级为大包装

袋装酸奶一直是乳制品市场的基本产品。乳制品公司主要销售三种此类产品:一种是销售,即周转篮直接放在冷气柜底部,产品分散在周转篮中。缺点是图像不好,单袋销售客户的价格低;第二是在透明水晶袋中使用4-5码。优点显而易见:产品不仅形象好,而且能够站立,同时也可以销售商品。例如,原始酪乳系列的新希望是这种类型的代表性产品,过去的“撒谎”袋产品通过大包装,全部“站起来”。

在第二季度,当团队参观市场时,他们发现伊利和蒙牛的基本袋装产品也开始升级为大包装。显然,从小袋子搬到大袋子是包装升级的必然趋势。在竞争激烈的环境中,基础产品越来越受到大公司的挤压,如何提高产品形象和增加销售额对于尚未升级其产品的中小企业来说是值得学习的。

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对第二季度典型事件的分析

2019年第二季度中国乳制品行业的典型事件是什么?对市场有什么积极影响?

1.娃哈哈,伊利,蒙牛等大型企业开设专卖店

4月初,娃哈哈宣布与杭州营养快乐新零售技术有限公司合作,建立线下“娃哈哈健康生活博物馆”,目标是一年有1000家店,三年有5000家店。

同月,蒙牛推出了“南方客户”APP,一个新的社交零售平台,并计划开设5,000家线下饮品店。

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6月6日,伊利与永辉合作,在北京长春天街超级品种伊利JoyDay酸奶工作室开设乳品体验店。

为什么这些大公司在线下营业?主要有两个原因:

首先是通过自建渠道实施新零售。新零售的核心要素是数据,通过自建渠道可以直接掌握第一手资料。通过自建的在线平台,物流仓储系统和离线商店,在线和离线,您可以实现更高效的销售管理;

其次,自建商店正在做品牌形象。商店本身也是图像显示的窗口。与广告牌等静态媒体相比,商店可以为消费者带来更多体验,与消费者互动,在销售产品时更有效地提升品牌形象。

我们可以看到,当传统的零售渠道已经建立了压倒性的优势时,它将进一步拓展新的零售和微商业等新渠道,为品牌打下坚实的基础而不留下死胡同。这是龙头企业的必然选择。

2. New Hope Dairy将举办品牌战略升级会议

5月21日,新乳业2018年度大会暨品牌战略大会在成都召开。会议以“迈向新生活,过上新生活”为主题,围绕新鲜,时尚,新技术的“三新”维度,正式提出“新一代选择”的品牌战略。

The launch of the new hope that the dairy industry has released a new LOGO. Compared with the original, the new brand LOGO is more concise, in line with the succinct trend of many big brands LOGO upgrade, the font and color are also fashionable, in line with the aesthetics of young consumers.

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For the new brand strategy of the new Hope Dairy “the choice of the fresh generation”, on the one hand, it emphasizes the consumption trend of fresh dairy products, on the other hand, it shows that the new hope is firmly standing with young consumers. In the context of the aging of many regional dairy brands, the brand strategy of New Hope Dairy close to young people reflects differentiated brand positioning. “Fresh” is the standard for the regional dairy industry. It is difficult for the regional dairy industry to monopolize the “fresh” brand positioning. However, the new position of the new dairy industry is essentially “fresh dairy products for young people”, and “fresh” is different.

3. Qinghai Lake holds the Qinghai Lake Yogurt Culture Festival for four consecutive sessions

On June 20th, the 20th Youth Fair and the 4th Qinghai Lake Yogurt Culture Festival opened in Xining. As a dairy industry event to enhance the overall efficiency and brand influence of agricultural and livestock products in Qinghai Province, this yoghurt culture festival will focus on enhancing the influence of “Qinghai Lake” brand. Through the four consecutive sessions of the Qinghai Lake Yogurt Culture Festival, the popularity and reputation of the “Qinghai Lake” brand has rapidly increased at home and abroad. Through the four consecutive sessions of the Yogurt Culture Festival, “Qinghai Lake” is accumulating its own brand assets steadily.

From the perspective of the competitive environment of the entire industry, the industry is concentrating on large enterprises, and the homogenization of industry products is serious. For dairy companies in the border regions, there are obvious opportunities to create regional brands. For consumers, the border areas have been the origin of high-quality dairy products since ancient times, which is consumer perception. Obviously, Xuefeng Yak Dairy intends to use the “Qinghai Lake” brand to seize the mental space of the first brand of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

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xx在整个一年中,第二季度是继承的,第二季度的市场表现无疑是实施上一年计划的可能。瑞农咨询团队对上半年非上市公司的增长进行的研究发现,这些公司基本上是个位数增长,许多公司的增长率低于5%。从这些信息中我们可以看出,整个市场的增长仍然是一家大型乳品公司,而更多的中小型乳品企业,如果没有系统的品牌战略规划,缺乏创新产品,将逐渐被边缘化市场竞争,最终成为市场。消除。

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